IGBT: the most promising track in the field of power devices
IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor), insulated gate bipolar transistor, is a fully controlled voltage-driven power semiconductor device composed of BJT (bipolar junction transistor) and MOSFET (metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor). At the same time, IGBT has the advantages of high input impedance of MOSFET, fast switching speed, low control power, simple driving circuit, low switching loss, low turn-on voltage of BJT, large on-state current and low loss. Therefore, IGBT is a kind of power electronic device with low driving power and low saturation voltage, which is suitable for medium and high power applications. At present, it is widely used in 650-6,500V medium and high voltage fields, and it is the most promising track in the field of power devices.
The IGBT combines BJT and MOSFET structure.
Image source: Power Electronics Technology and New Energy
According to different manufacturing technologies and downstream application scenarios, there are three types of IGBT: single transistor, IGBT module and intelligent power module IPM.
Three Types, Characteristics and Downstream Applications of IGBT
Data source: BYD Microelectronics Prospectus, Hongwei Technology Prospectus, and Myna finishing.
In addition, due to the different application scenarios of downstream consumer electronics, new energy, rail transit, etc., the required IGBT voltage is also different. According to the voltage division, IGBT includes ultra-low voltage, low voltage, medium voltage and high voltage, etc., and the requirements of different application fields are different. Among them, IGBT used in new energy vehicles, industrial control, household appliances, etc. is mainly medium voltage, while rail transit, new energy power generation and smart grid, etc. have higher voltage requirements, and mainly use high voltage IGBT.
Source: starling finishing
As a leading global IGBT enterprise, Feiling’s product technology has become a benchmark for local manufacturers. As of 2021, Infineon products have been iterated to the seventh generation. Among them, the fifth generation and the sixth generation belong to the optimized version of the fourth generation (the fifth generation belongs to the fourth generation of high-power version, and the sixth generation belongs to the fourth generation of high-frequency version). IGBT devices need to bear high voltage and high current, which requires high stability and reliability. In the future, IGBT will develop towards smaller size, larger wafer and thinner thickness, and the progress of the whole chip technology will be realized through the improvement of cost, power density, junction temperature and reliability. In addition, the future trend of IGBT modules will also be towards higher thermal conductivity materials, thicker copper clad layer, better integrated heat dissipation function and higher reliability.
Review of IGBT chips of Feiling in past dynasties
Source: Infineon Industry Official Micro
Demand: Big downstream market, IGBT benefits deeply.
In 2021, the global IGBT market will be about USD 7.09 billion, close to RMB 50 billion. CAGR will reach 14% from 2016 to 2020. China accounts for about 40% of the global market.
Global IGBT market size (USD 100 million)
Source: starling finishing
In 2020, the market size of single pipe, IPM and module will account for 24%, 22% and 54%.
Proportion of IGBT market segments
Source: starling finishing
According to Yole data, the market size of industrial, household, electric vehicle, rail transit, photovoltaic and other industries will account for 31%, 24%, 9%, 6% and 4% in 2020.
Proportion of downstream IGBT applications
Source: Yole, starling finishing
New energy vehicles are the largest incremental market of IGBT. IGBT is mainly used in the motor control system, thermal management system and on-board charger of new energy vehicles. In the main inverter, IGBT converts the direct current of high-voltage battery into alternating current driving three-phase motor, in on-board charger, IGBT converts 220V alternating current into direct current to charge high-voltage battery, and in DC-DC converter, IGBT converts the high voltage output by high-voltage battery into low voltage for the low-voltage power supply network of automobile. In addition, IGBT is also widely used in PTC heaters, water pumps, oil pumps, air-conditioning compressors and other auxiliary inverters to complete low-power DC-AC conversion.
IGBT is widely used in new energy vehicles.
Image source: stmicroelectronics
According to Strategy Analytics, the value of pure electric vehicle power semiconductor bicycle is 330 USD (equivalent to 2100 RMB). Generally, the value of IGBT single car of A00 passenger car is 800 yuan, and the value of IGBT single car of A-class electric car is 2000 yuan. At present, some high-end models adopt four-wheel drive system (such as Li one), and the four-wheel drive system adopts two electronic control modules. It is estimated that the value of IGBT single car of four-wheel drive models will reach 3,200 yuan. Considering the impact of the annual decline of IGBT procurement in normal years, it is estimated that the value of IGBT single car of new energy vehicles will remain at 1,700 yuan.
In 2021, the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 6.5 million, corresponding to the IGBT market size of 11.1 billion yuan, and the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 3.5 million, corresponding to the IGBT market size of 6 billion yuan. Assuming that the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 22.5 million (with a penetration rate of 25%) and 45 million (with a penetration rate of 50%) in 2025 and 2030, the corresponding IGBT market will reach 38.3 billion yuan and 76.5 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 48% and 31% in 2020-2030.
Photovoltaic-energy storage is the second incremental market of IGBT. It is the core device of photovoltaic inverter and energy storage inverter. Centralized photovoltaic mainly adopts IGBT module, and segmented photovoltaic mainly adopts IGBT single tube or module (single-phase IGBT single tube is generally used, and three-phase IGBT single tube or module can be selected).
The function of photovoltaic inverter is to reverse the direct current generated by photovoltaic modules into alternating current.
Image source: chinaprecede
The single MW value of photovoltaic power semiconductor is 2000~5000 euros, the single MW value of energy storage power semiconductor is 2500~3500 euros, and the estimated unit price of IGBT is 3000 euros /MW (equivalent to 21 million yuan /GW). According to the prospectus of Goodway and Jinlang Technology, IGBT accounts for 11%~12% of the raw material purchase cost, and the raw material cost accounts for 93%~94% of the operating cost. The average gross profit margin in the past three years is 35%, and the estimated IGBT value accounts for 7% of the inverter market size.
It is estimated that in 2025 and 2030, the shipment of PV-energy storage inverters will reach 542,1650 GW, and the market size will reach 150,399.9 billion yuan, corresponding to the global market size of PV-energy storage IGBT, which will reach 10,828 billion yuan, with CAGR reaching 30% in 2020-2025 and 25% in 2020-2030.
White field: IGBT is mainly used in inverter air conditioners, inverter refrigerators and inverter washing machines, and its main products are IPM and IGBT single tube. In 2020, China’s household inverter air conditioners shipped 83.37 million units, with a penetration rate of 58%, China’s inverter washing machines sold 26.27 million units, with a penetration rate of 42%, and China’s inverter refrigerators sold 25.06 million units, with a penetration rate of 30%. Assuming that the penetration rate of inverter air conditioners, inverter washing machines and inverter refrigerators will increase by 3% every year in the future, the IGBT value of inverter air conditioners will be 40 yuan. The value of a single IGBT for refrigerator and inverter washing machine is 10 yuan, corresponding to the market size of China’s white IGBT in 2020, 2025 and 2030, which will reach 5.4 billion yuan, 7.0 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 5% in 2020-2025 and 5% in 2020-2030. Considering that China’s air conditioner production accounts for 80%, refrigerator production accounts for 60% and washing machine production accounts for 40%, the global white IGBT market will reach 7,394,115 billion yuan in 2020, 2025 and 2030.
Industrial and other fields: the main application fields of industrial control include frequency converter, inverter welder and UPS. In 2020, the global IGBT market will reach US$ 6.7 billion (equivalent to RMB 45.9 billion) and China’s IGBT market will reach US$ 2.6 billion (equivalent to RMB 17.9 billion). After deducting the market demand of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic energy storage and white electricity, we estimate that the global market in other fields (mainly including industry, rail transit, power supply and other fields) will reach 30.3 billion yuan and the Chinese market will reach 8.1 billion yuan. It is expected that the world and other areas in China will grow steadily at a growth rate of 4% and 6% in the future, and the global market will reach 36.949 billion yuan in 2025 and 2030, and the Chinese market will reach 10.914 billion yuan.
To sum up, the global IGBT market will become a billion-dollar market in 2025, in which new energy vehicles and new energy power generation make great contributions.
Supply side: overseas giants monopolize, and domestic manufacturers make breakthroughs.
From the perspective of the global IGBT competition pattern, the industry is concentrated. According to Yole, the industry CR3 will reach 50% in 2020, and Infineon is the absolute leader in the industry with a market share of 27%.
Global IGBT Competition Pattern in 2020
Source: Yole, starling finishing
By product type:
IGBT is mainly used in low-power household appliances, segmented photovoltaic inverters and low-power frequency converters, and its manufacturing process is epoxy injection molding. In 2020, the industry CR3 will reach 53%, Infineon will be the absolute leader in the industry, with a market share of over 29%, and the domestic market share of Shilanwei will reach 2.6%, ranking 10th.
Competition pattern of global IGBT single tube market in 2020
Source: Omdia, starling finishing
IPM module is used in inverter air conditioner and inverter washing machine in white goods, and its manufacturing process is epoxy injection molding process. In 2020, the industry CR3 reached 62%, Mitsubishi was the absolute leader in the industry, with a market share of 33%. The domestic market share of Shilanwei reached 1.6%, ranking ninth, and the market share of China Microelectronics was 0.9%, ranking tenth.
Competition pattern of global IPM module market in 2020
Source: Omdia, starling finishing
IGBT modules are used in high-power frequency converters, welding machines, new energy vehicles, centralized photovoltaics and other fields, and the manufacturing process is glue filling process. In 2020, the CR3 of the industry will reach 58%, Infineon is the absolute leader in the industry, with a market share of 36%, and the domestic Starr semi-pilot market accounts for 2.8%, ranking sixth.
Competition pattern of global IGBT module market in 2020
Source: Omdia, starling finishing
Domestic substitution: out of stock+price increase, domestic manufacturers are accelerating their rise.
According to Yole, in terms of output, the domestic self-sufficiency rate was 10% in 2015 and only 19% in 2021, and the self-sufficiency rate of the industry was slowly increasing. Considering the higher specifications of overseas products, it is expected that the localization rate will be lower in terms of market size.
Source: Yole, starling finishing
In terms of industries, the localization rate of new energy vehicles is high, and the localization rate of photovoltaics is close to 0.
New Energy Vehicles: Thanks to the vigorous development of China’s new energy vehicle market in recent years, the domestic IGBT manufacturers have grown rapidly, and the localization rate of new energy vehicles is relatively high. In 2019, BYD and Starr accounted for 20% and 17% respectively. In 2020, the automobile-grade IGBT modules produced by Starr Semiconductor will be equipped with more than 200,000 sets of new energy vehicles, accounting for 15% of the market.
Competition pattern of IGBT for new energy vehicles in China in 2019 (supporting quantity caliber)
Source: JOSE Automotive Research Institute, Starling finishing.
Photovoltaic & Energy Storage: The localization rate of this field in China will be close to 0 in 2020. According to Goodway’s 2021 annual report, “There are few domestic manufacturers of IGBT components, and there are some differences in product stability and technical indicators compared with imported components. At present, the performance stability and related technical indicators of domestic IGBT components and IC semiconductors fail to fully meet the technical requirements of the company’s products, and it is expected that import substitution will not be fully realized in the short term. ”
Industry: Starr Semiconductor is the leading industrial control IGBT in China. In 2019 and 2020, Starr’s industrial control and power supply industry earned 670 million yuan, accounting for about 7% and 9% of the corresponding market share. The localization rate of industrial control industry is low.
Since 2020, the demand side has benefited from the outbreak of demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, the overseas epidemic situation on the supply side has repeatedly restricted overseas production capacity, the supply and demand of IGBT are out of balance, the delivery time of overseas big manufacturers continues to rise, and the prices continue to rise.
Under the background of short supply, the localization rate process depends on the release rate of production capacity, and the localization rate is expected to reach 37% in 2022. From the production planning of leading IGBT in IDM mode in China, the production capacity of 8-inch wafers in BYD Semi-Conductor and CRRC era will double in 2022. From the production planning of domestic Fab factories (Hua Hong Semi-Conductor, SMIC Shaoxing, Advanced Tower), the production capacity will also increase by more than 60%. From the production data, it is estimated that the domestic production capacity will increase by 90%+ in 2022. We estimate that the IGBT revenue of domestic listed companies will double in 2022.
Source: Company announcement, starling finishing.
Judging from the latest Q2 performance, the net profit of Starr Semiconductor and Yangjie Technology both hit a record high in a single quarter.
Among them, Starr Semiconductor’s main business income grew steadily and rapidly in the first half of the year, and its products continued to increase rapidly in new energy vehicles, clean energy, energy storage and other industries. The income of new energy industry increased from 33.48% in 2021 to 47.37% in the first half of 2022;
Yangjie Technology also said that its products continued to increase rapidly in emerging applications such as automotive electronics and clean energy. In the first half of this year, the sales revenue of new products such as MOSFET, IGBT and SiC increased by more than 100% year-on-year.
The capacity utilization rate of Times IGBT Phase II is close to 90%, which is further improved than Q1, and the yield rate has exceeded 80%.
Comparison of four domestic IGBT manufacturers with car specifications
Source: public information of related enterprises,
Industry prospect: IGBT will become a hot commodity.
Trend: the supply of IGBT will be in short supply for a long time
Since July, 2020, the supply of products in the whole semiconductor industry has been strained to varying degrees. By October, the shortage of semiconductor products broke out in an all-round way. In May, 2021, the shortage of semiconductor products reached its peak, and the supply and demand of the whole industry were completely out of balance. Due to the continuous shortage of production capacity, the delivery period of IGBT products will continue to lengthen in 2021, and there is still no relief phenomenon in Q3. The delivery period of some IGBT products of Infineon, Ansermei and Microsemi has been extended to 39-52 weeks, and the prices have continued to rise. Although the market predicts that the gap between supply and demand will ease in 2022, Infineon said that the gap between supply and demand of IGBT may only ease in 2023.
Trend: the progress of IGBT localization is accelerated.
With the transfer of global manufacturing industry to China, China has gradually become the largest IGBT market in the world. Driven by the strong market demand, a group of overseas Chinese with IGBT-related experience have returned to China to join the IGBT industry. At the same time, the Chinese government has successively introduced relevant policies to encourage the development of IGBT industry and stimulate IGBT enterprises to overcome the bottleneck problem. Driven by industrial policy and market demand, the process of IGBT localization is accelerated. From the process of domestic substitution, CRRC Times Electric has fully mastered the power semiconductor product technologies such as thyristor, rectifier, IGCT, IGBT, SiC devices and power components, and has solid strength in key areas such as high-speed rail IGBT. Sida Semiconductor owns the seventh-generation IGBT technology, which is widely used in vehicle, photovoltaic, wind power, industrial control and household appliances. The car gauge chip based on the seventh-generation IGBT technology has been successfully developed, and it is expected to start mass supply in 2022. Other companies’ domestic substitution progress in industrial control, photovoltaic and wind power fields is acceptable, but the progress in high-end fields such as new energy vehicles is relatively slow.
Trend: car gauge IGBT is expected to become the largest downstream market.
With the release of “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)”, new energy vehicles have become the main direction of the global automobile industry transformation and an important engine to promote the sustained growth of the world economy, and the global and Chinese sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise. Under the double-carbon background, it is the general trend that new energy vehicles replace traditional fuel vehicles, and the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase significantly in the future. New energy is the largest downstream demand side of IGBT in China, accounting for about 31%. Therefore, car-grade IGBT is likely to become the largest downstream market of IGBT. China’s car-gauge IGBT industry is highly concentrated, with CR4 as high as 84.4% and CR2 as high as 76.2%. Only 3 of the top 10 suppliers are domestic brands, and Infineon alone has a market share of 58.2%. BYD Semiconductor is the most capable local manufacturer in the Chinese market to challenge Infineon, but its market share is only 18%. Starsemiconductor, the leading local IGBT manufacturer, has made slow progress in car-gauge IGBT, with a market share of only 1.6%.
Article Source: https://www.dzd-goodic.com/news/a-device-sells-for-50-billion-domestic-igbt-manufacturers-have-accelerated-getting-on-the-bus/
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