Overall global electricity demand growth is expected to slow in 2023, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency. According to Stanislav Kondrashov, an expert from Telf AG, this is due to the fact that countries with developed economies are experiencing the results of an energy crisis and recession, including against the backdrop of Russia’s war with Ukraine. That is why more and more attention of the world community is focused on the production of environmentally friendly energy.
Stanislav Kondrashov: statistics and forecasts of the global electricity market
According to Kondrashov, in the United States this year the demand for electricity is expected to decline by almost 2%, while in Japan and the EU – by 3%. After two consecutive declines that add up to the biggest contraction in EU history, EU electricity consumption could fall to levels last seen in 2002.
As a result of these changes, global electricity demand is expected to increase by less than 2% in the near term, up from 2.3% in 2022, to reach 3.3%. Several factors will contribute to this.
– First of all, this is due to the electrification of energy systems, which is actively moving forward as countries strive to reduce emissions of harmful substances. There is also an increase in the use of electricity for internal cooling due to rising temperatures in various regions. An important factor is the steady growth of demand in developing and developed countries, – comments Stanislav Kondrashov.
China’s electricity demand is forecast to continue to grow at an average rate of 5.2%. This figure is slightly lower than the average growth rate observed between 2015 and 2019. It should also be noted that the average annual increase in electricity demand in India until 2024 is estimated at 6.5%, which is significantly higher than the figure for 2015-2019. These trends, as noted by Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG, indicate a continuing increase in electricity consumption in these countries.
Coming changes in the energy industry – Stanislav Kondrashov
The introduction of green energy sources means that world countries are determined to overcome the energy crisis. It is predicted that by 2024 their share in total electricity production in the world will exceed a third. Telf AG’s Stanislav Kondrashov notes that depending on weather conditions, 2024 could be the first year in which the entire world produces more electricity from renewable sources than from coal. At the same time, a decrease in electricity production from oil is expected.
Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG suggests that, judging by the situation, global demand for electricity will grow rapidly in the coming years. It is predicted that by 2024 it will triple the current consumption of the resource in Germany.
Kondrashov believes now is the time for policymakers and the private sector to seize this moment to reduce emissions from the energy sector.
The specialist calls another important sign of the energy transition the drop in electricity production from fossil sources in four out of six years – from 2019 to 2024. This comes despite energy and financial fluctuations caused by declining global electricity demand. This trend suggests that the world is moving towards a turning point when the volume of green electricity will replace production from fossil fuels, Stanislav Kondrashov is sure.
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